For the 20th time in NBA history, we have a Game 7 in the NBA Finals.
Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and the Indiana Pacers just won’t go away, winning Game 6 at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder to force a winner-take-all matchup in OKC on Sunday night.
After oddsmakers – and many pundits – had the consensus pick of OKC in five games, the Pacers have shocked everyone time and time again, winning Game 6 at home despite Haliburton dealing with a calf injury.
The star guard didn’t look too injured though, as he finished with 14 points and five dimes in less than 23 minutes of action in the blowout win.
Oddsmakers have set the Thunder as favorites at home in Game 7, but can we trust them to cover the spread after laying an egg in Game 6?
I’m looking to the total in this matchup, and there is a pretty interesting trend in the last five NBA Finals matchups that went the distance. Plus, there is a player prop that I love as well for Sunday’s action.
The 2024-25 NBA season has given us a lot, hanging on for as long as possible with this Game 7. So, here’s the final Peter’s Points of the campaign. Let’s close things on a high note!
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 279-291-5 (-11.59 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1289-1235-26 (+26.49 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Indiana Pacers-Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 215.5 (-110)Chet Holmgren UNDER 15.5 Points (-110)Indiana Pacers-Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 215.5 (-110)
When it comes to recent NBA Finals history, the UNDER is the way to go when betting on a Game 7, and I love that the total has actually gone up a point since opening at 214.5.
Here’s a look at the final scores in the five most recent Game 7s, where no team even reached 100 points:
2016: Cavs 93, Warriors 892013: Heat 95, Spurs 882010: Lakers 83, Celtics 792005: Spurs 81, Pistons 741994: Rockets 90, Knicks 84
While we’re certainly in a different era of basketball with the pace of play, 3-point shot and higher scoring games, it’s worth noting how great these defenses have been in this series.
The Thunder have an offensive rating of 110.5 in the six games in this matchup while the Pacers sit at 109.5. When you compare those to regular season numbers, they’d both be in the bottom eight in the league.
For further perspective, the Utah Jazz had an offensive rating of 110.2 in the regular season while the New Orleans Pelicans were at 109.7. Those were the two worst teams in the Western Conference.
As it is, two games in this series have already fallen short of this total, and I expect things to slow down in Game 7 with so much at stake.
Chet Holmgren UNDER 15.5 Points (-110)
The 2025 NBA Finals have been a rough go for Chet Holmgren on offense.
He’s scored over 15 points in just one game, and he’s shooting just 35.3 percent from the field. Here’s a quick look at some of Holmgren’s numbers against Indiana, which has done a great job of keeping him from getting easy looks on drives to the rim:
11.3 PPG35.3 FG%11.3 3P% (2-for-17 overall)Catch-and-Shoot FG%: 11.1%FG% Inside 10 FT: 47.5%
Holmgren is also shooting just 25.0 percent from the field on drives where he takes two dribbles, and 23.1 percent on drives where he takes 3-6 dribbles.
Simply put, the Thunder forward has not been able to get going on offense, and he has three games in this series where he’s taken less than 10 shots. I can’t trust him in what may be a lower-scoring matchup to have one of his best scoring games of the Finals.